Dr. Alexander Mirtchev cautions that the potential recovery determined by global economic initiatives, such as those envisaged by the G20, will be contingent on taking into account their unanticipated consequences. He emphasized that the signs of recovery should be considered in context and that the global economy is not “out of the woods” yet. However, Mirtchev indicated that some, in particular the rapidly developing economies, have reached the nadir of the downturn, and should be on the upward slope. A consistent and sustained recovery will not only be contingent on the absence of new external “shocks” and systemic upheavals, but, most importantly, on the impact of the government intervention in the markets that was prompted by the crisis. This impact’s drawbacks will become most apparent in the precarious debt positions of certain countries. In this context, the reaffirmation by the G20 of the intent to maintain the unprecedented levels of government intervention worldwide will generate additional complexities and distortions that could impact global economic security. Ultimately, the return to global economic security equilibrium will clearly depend on the formulation of an efficient, timely and straightforward exit strategy.
Global Economic Security Discourses